Swiss Re reports on mortality trends
Swiss Re’s latest report, which can be found here - The future of life expectancy: Forecasting long-term mortality trends for insurance, investigates life expectancy trends, developments and medical advancements that have contributed to rising life expectancy and estimates what the future causes of death trends will be.
Stats NZ shows that life expectancy at birth in 1955 was 68 for men and 73 for women. By 2019 that had increased dramatically to 80 for men and 83.5 for women.
Recent drivers of big increases in life expectancies have included improved diagnoses and treatment of cardiovascular disease and people quitting smoking. Since 2010, in many developed areas mortality improvement has slowed or plateaued.
In America, life expectancy has declined in recent periods, due to factors including unequal access to healthcare; high levels of opioid addiction and death rates; societal obesity; and high levels of deaths from violent crimes. Healthcare is so expensive, 28% of Americans said they skipped medical care due to costs, with 42% of uninsured Americans skipping medical care because of costs.
High socioeconomic groups in America generally have higher mortality improvements than the overall population, with continuing divergence in mortality trends between those at either end of the socioeconomic scale.
Socioeconomic status is a major determinant of mortality risk in many mature markets, with the risk of dying inversely proportionate to income levels. Large international studies have shown that individuals of lower socioeconomic status have greater premature mortality than those with high socioeconomic status. Low socioeconomic status is also associated with a 2.1-year reduction in life expectancy between the ages of 40–85.
Although, by comparison with the United States, New Zealanders have good life expectancy, there are many countries where it is higher. We continue to lose many years of life expectancy to treatable conditions. Chatswood examined possible life expectancy gains by comparing death rates for the top ten causes of early death with those in other OECD countries, and identifying the gains that could be made by improving mortality to the level of the average of the OECD and the best in the OECD. A summary of the research is included here. If you would like to obtain a copy of the full mortality improvement report, please contact either Kelly Pulham at kelly@quotemonster.co.nz or Russell Hutchinson Russell.hutchinson@chatswood.co.nz.
The report identifies neurogenerative and aging diseases such as Alzheimer’s to become a more significant cause of death.
The risk factors of dementia are varied, with 40% falling into the range of being potentially modifiable behaviours and activities throughout life (see Figure 10). The remaining 60% of the risk remains unknown, likely comprising genetic factors, as yet unidentified lifestyle factors and other determinants. Higher incidence in future could be influenced by a growing proportion of people with a high BMI leading to Type 2 diabetes, along with air pollutants and consumption of processed foods.
Swiss Re expect lifestyle factors including rising rates of obesity and diabetes to put future life expectancy gains at risk.
The World Obesity Federation estimates that 1 in 5 women and 1 in 7 men will be living with obesity by 2030, equating to one billion people globally. If the US continues on its current trajectory, it would imply that 90% of its population could be overweight or obese by 2042.
They also highlight emerging risks as a future threat to life expectancy, whether through known risks like climate change and antimicrobial resistance or as yet unknown risks such as new diseases or some other development.
Future drivers of improvements in mortality are predicted to be due to advanced cancer diagnostics and the evolution of personalised, precision medicine. Swiss Re write that aging-related and neurodegenerative diseases will likely benefit from improvement in treatments over the next couple of decades. Lifestyle and behaviour modifications to improve nutrition and physical activity could have a substantial impact on diabetes and obesity-related mortality.
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