IPSOS demonstrate weakness in opinion survey design

Opinion surveys have often come in for some criticism from us. Opinions are poor guides to intentions, which is what they are often used to measure. Decisions that carry significant costs vary considerably from opinions, because opinions are free, and while offering them, you can avoid thinking too hard about the costs. There is a famous scene in the BBC comedy “Yes Prime Minister” where a senior civil servant, Sir Humphrey Appleby, explained how you can get completely different answers to surveys by using different questions, which you can see at this link.

IPSOS, a market research company, knows this, but felt that we could do with a demonstration of the weakness of opinion surveys, which they gave to us by using the exact questions suggested by the scriptwriters for “Yes Prime Minister”. The results are a powerful confirmation.